2026 Job Market Predictions: How to Navigate Layoffs, Quiet Hiring & A Market Confidence Crisis
Usually around this time of year, I get to tell a really hopeful story about things getting better. I get to say, “Hang in there, the hiring season is coming. Companies are planning budgets. January will be your month.”
But I want to be real with you. I’m not convinced 2026 starts off that way.
If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that traditional hiring cycles?
Yeah… they’re about as reliable as people “taking accountability” on LinkedIn after getting dragged for bad behavior.
(Here’s looking at you, SHRM - I mean seriously, guys WTF? If you have no clue what I’m talking about: the Society for Human Resource Management just lost a racial discrimination case for discriminating against their own employees. A big fat $11.5 million suit. WHAT! Different blog for a different day though.)
Nothing lined up the way it was “supposed” to.
Surges didn’t surge.
Recruitment freezes didn’t thaw.
And companies played musical chairs with their org charts all year long.
Based on what I’m seeing (or honestly not seeing - hello, or really goodbye, Bureau of Labor Statistics), 2026 might be even more unpredictable.
So here’s what I’m really predicting... the concerns, the realities, and the hope.
Let’s talk about it.
1. Quiet Layoffs Are Back - And They’re Louder Than Ever
Everyone’s talking about quiet quitting, but let’s keep it real: quiet layoffs never left.
Employees are being reorganized out, reassigned, performance-managed out, or simply “not replaced” when they resign.
And the numbers? They’re rough.
In November 2025, U.S. employers announced 71,321 layoffs - one of the biggest single-month cuts we’ve seen lately.
That brings 2025’s total job cuts to around 1.17 million, the highest annual layoff number since the pandemic.
Let me translate that:
If we stay anywhere near this pace, roughly 70–80K layoffs per month, 2026 could become one of the worst layoff years in modern U.S. history.
Hope & Strategy:
Don’t panic. Prepare.
Keep your resume and LinkedIn ready before you need them.
Build a 6 to 8 month cash buffer if possible.
Network consistently (your future job might come through someone you know).
Document your wins.. it matters for job searches, job protection AND your self-confidence.
2. Quiet Hiring Is Coming... Kind Of... And It’s Not All Bad
Now here’s the part no one is talking about enough:
While quiet layoffs are happening, quiet hiring is happening too.
Quiet Hiring = the jobs are real, the need is real, but the postings… are not.
Why?
Because when the market is unstable and talent is abundant, companies don’t always bother with a big, public search. They go straight to:
Former candidates
Warm referrals
People they already follow on LinkedIn
Industry contacts
Someone recommended by someone they trust
Internal hires to avoid laying them off.
This is why some of you are applying to 200 jobs and hearing nothing.
And let me be clear: even some hiring teams are confused right now....job is live...job is frozen....job is closed. Job is live again.
In my day job, where I work in hiring and workforce development, I’ve suddenly had multiple employers come to me asking to hire 25–30 recent college grads in DECEMBER after being completely silent all year.
Just one anecdotal data point, but a powerful one.
This is exactly what 2026 is going to look like:
Hiring in fits and spurts, unpredictable waves, and patterns that don’t follow patterns.
And it will be highly dependent on your skills and where you live.
Right now, I’m personally seeing increased needs in:
healthcare
customer service
sales (especially insurance)
risk management
financial services and support
the one we don't want to talk about - trades
Not all booming, but not all dead either.
Hope & Strategy:
Quiet hiring actually works in your favor if you stay visible.
Be active online. Whatever that means to you. Not just Linkedin (they have issues to) but industry slack channels, substack, whatever.
Show your work. Share your insights
Reconnect with former colleagues... and for the love of God touch grass! Go out and meet with people and meet new people IN PERSON.
Tell your network what you’re open to clarity attracts opportunity
Attend industry events, virtual or in-person
Follow companies and engage with their people
Use your intuition and your network’s lived experience; they’re often more accurate than delayed government data.
Visibility beats perfection in 2026.
3. Job Data Is Getting Messy - And We Have to Navigate It Blind
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics going through things... we may actually never fully understand what the unemployment rate is anymore, and what that all means...
Which means:
Economic indicators are fuzzier
Hiring projections are murkier
Companies themselves are “wait-and-see” budgeting
Basically, the people who are supposed to tell us what's happening… don’t currently know what’s happening... or better yet, if they do, they aren't getting ready to tell us the truth, so we need to get data from multiple sources.
Hope & Strategy:
Instead of relying on monthly reports, watch behavioral trends:
Job postings
Hiring freezes
Contract role increases
Team reorgs
Industry-specific demand shifts
Adapt early; don’t wait for the headlines.
Use your intuition and your network’s lived experience they’re often more accurate than you think.
4. Stability Is Coming… Eventually
Here’s the slightly better news:
I’m not going to sit here and tell you whether we’re heading into a recession - that’s beyond my skillset, and economists don’t all publicly agree on that answer anyway (at the writing of this). Some say yes, some say no, some say “it depends on Q2.”
But here’s what I can say with confidence:
We are absolutely heading into... if not already in... a market confidence crisis.
Companies are:
cautious
overly protective
slow to hire
and waiting for clearer signs before committing to headcount
Economic fundamentals aren’t falling apart. They’re just wobbling. And corporate confidence is wobbling right along with them.
Hope & Strategy:
Use Q1 to prepare, not panic.
Position yourself now so when the wave hits, you ride it, not chase it.
Strengthen your skills, presence, and network early. What else can you add to your toolbox that is marketable?
5. So… What Do You Do Right Now?
Here’s the truth:
You can’t control the market, the layoffs, the quiet hiring, or the data interruptions.
But you can control your positioning.
Here’s what works in a messy market:
Strengthen your brand
People hire people they remember. Period.
Sharpen your skills
Take a course, level up, get certified, or deepen what you already do.
Build your network before you need it
Quiet hiring rewards people who stay visible and connected.
Consider career coaching
Career transitions in chaotic markets are harder and you don’t have to figure it out alone.
(My Pause, Plan, Pivot: Holiday Guide is a good place to start if you’re mapping out your 2026.) And My Networking Guide is a great resource if you know yours needs some work!
Create your own stability
Savings, side projects, a portfolio, clarity on your value - these matter more than ever.
Final Thought: Don’t Be Scared. Be Strategic.
I’m not telling you any of this to freak you out.
I’m telling you this because you deserve the truth, not a generic “Everything looks great!” HR-approved newsletter.
2026 might start messy.
But messy markets create massive opportunity for people who are prepared, visible, and intentional.
You don’t have to just survive the chaos... you can position yourself to stand out in it.
And I’m here to help you do exactly that... while simultaneously, hoping I'm kind of wrong.